Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 23.231787 25.299327 27.536826 30.150266 33.134443 36.454119 40.452124
2025-11-23 19.839836 22.637385 25.880109 29.963998 35.038938 41.233432 49.520412
2025-11-30 17.501488 20.674978 24.550255 29.729957 36.632050 45.762545 59.216516
2025-12-07 15.866075 19.265551 23.594454 29.673410 38.275520 50.507990 70.262814
2025-12-14 14.546083 18.055991 22.680051 29.446071 39.527549 54.818714 81.730371
2025-12-21 13.909447 17.645125 22.736531 30.506359 42.730112 62.624391 101.279601
2025-12-28 12.986015 16.736766 21.978088 30.233711 43.778363 67.100073 116.348306
2026-01-04 12.268546 16.042485 21.438984 30.194680 45.149188 72.372256 135.032944
2026-01-11 11.743591 15.572076 21.170590 30.524420 47.163930 79.265721 160.480960
2026-01-18 11.153144 14.955706 20.617808 30.308093 48.142925 84.315922 184.004679
2026-01-25 10.633243 14.404698 20.114324 30.106484 49.098042 89.533407 211.103383
2026-02-01 10.200880 13.954997 19.730102 30.059925 50.331936 95.689010 245.414876
2026-02-08 9.757432 13.470026 19.267084 29.851800 51.271541 101.595819 284.626153
2026-02-15 9.346002 13.011247 18.814632 29.618838 52.136359 107.647359 330.942908
2026-02-22 8.966700 12.580821 18.377771 29.368690 52.927773 113.804795 385.578229
2026-03-01 8.651675 12.234552 18.057209 29.304974 54.128862 121.577101 460.435625
2026-03-08 8.334686 11.867197 17.674210 29.078361 54.914994 128.434284 543.145644
2026-03-15 8.242358 11.860475 17.915142 30.118152 58.948266 147.503299 763.278624
2026-03-22 7.957361 11.518401 17.537655 29.849878 59.653713 155.490111 920.297417
2026-03-29 7.725538 11.253776 17.282072 29.811320 60.959188 166.412152 1162.104006
2026-04-05 7.559138 11.091072 17.200472 30.134964 63.311942 182.862534 1598.299665
2026-04-12 7.331424 10.812571 16.887606 29.922537 64.134598 193.372880 2046.375662
2026-04-19 7.119591 10.552104 16.593347 29.724572 64.973882 204.593488 2684.153192